[I hand-delivered copies for each of the addressees to the Port Manager's office the afternoon of October 13 and was told they would be distributed to each. The format of the following letter has been adapted for this web page.]
Date: 13 October 2004
To: Port Manager Don Mann and Commissioners David Jincks, Mark Fisher, Rob Halverson,
Don Mathews, Ginny Goblirsch
Port of Newport
600 SE Bay Boulevard
Newport, OR 97365
From: Range (Richard) Bayer; rbayer@orednet.org; PO Box 1467; Newport, OR 97365
Dear Port Manager and Commissioners:
Re: earthquake, tsunami, and traffic hazards at the proposed Event Center.
I am very concerned that the proposed Event Center on your property will risk public safety.
The City of Newport is planning to build an Event Center on the sand dredge spoils of the Port of Newport's property near the South Beach Marina, with groundbreaking to begin early next year ("Details of Event Center Funding Discussed," p. A3 of 8 October 2004 Newport News-Times). The Port is also hoping to have a hotel, motel, and/or restaurant developed on its property near the Event Center ("Port Debates Events Center Merits and Detractions," p. A1 of 24 September 2004 Newport News-Times). The Event Center would have a maximum capacity of about 4,000 people ("Port Hears Update on Newport Event Center" in 24 March 2004 Newport News-Times). The "Port Debates ..." article also reports that the Intergovernmental Agreement between the Port and City of Newport has not been finalized, there are concerns about traffic congestion, and there is no Master Plan for South Beach.
I have found no mention of the earthquake and tsunami hazards for the proposed Event Center site by the Port or City in any News-Times article or in the Newport City Council Minutes.
The site of the proposed Event Center and possible hotel or motel on the Port's property is in the highest earthquake risk category for earthquake amplification, liquefaction, and "Relative Earthquake Hazard," according to 1999 Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) maps (Appendix A). DOGAMI's "Newport--South Tsunami Evacuation Map" shows that the proposed Event Center is in a tsunami evacuation zone (Appendix B), and DOGAMI's 1995 Open File Report O-95-29 also shows that area is below the Tsunami Inundation Zone or Boundary (Appendix C). The reasons for the high hazards at this site are that the Port's South Beach property is composed of sand dredge spoils and is low-lying. Even if earthquake hazard reduction preparation (e.g., site preparation and special building construction) was done for the Port's South Beach property (which may not be feasible), such preparation may not diminish the tsunami hazard there (see p. 30 of Principle 4 in "Designing for Tsunamis: Seven Principles for Planning and Designing for Tsunami Hazards" in Appendix D).
Is it wise to build the Event Center in an earthquake and tsunami hazard area? An excerpt from "Designing for Tsunamis: Seven Principles for Planning and Designing for Tsunami Hazards" in Appendix D states (boldface added):
"Principle 2: Avoid Development in Tsunami Run-up Areas to Minimize Future Tsunami Losses":
"Tsunami risk can be mitigated most effectively by avoiding or minimizing the exposure of people and property through land use planning. Development should be prevented in high-hazard areas wherever possible. Where development cannot be prevented, land use intensity, building value, and occupancy should be kept to a minimum."
Unfortunately, there is even more bad news that increases the risk of loss of life at the proposed Event Center after a major earthquake or tsunami. In a 1997 analysis by the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), the Yaquina Bay Bridge was the number one bridge in Oregon for earthquake preparation because it is vulnerable to a "moderate" earthquake and is part of a "lifeline route." If the Yaquina Bay Bridge fails, it would cut-off emergency responders and supplies from the Newport side of the Bridge going to the South Beach Event Center and the Port's desired hotel, motel, and/or restaurant. People, who may be lucky to escape from the Event Center after a major earthquake and tsunami with the clothes on their backs, may then find themselves without emergency medical care and supplies, drinking water, blankets, etc. and may die later. Excerpts from a 16 July 2004 News-Times article, "County Discusses Quake, Tsunami Preparedness and Response Capabilities" indicate that the County won't be able to help.
"But, [County Commissioner] Cowan said, "we can't do everything for everybody. That is why people, families, businesses, should have plans in place. People need to be able to take care of themselves for 24 or 48 hours with water and food [boldface added], and have emergency contacts known," so they can contact one family member to get word to others without tying up the phone lines. ..."Commissioner Terry Thompson warned 'there are some small areas between the bridges, and when I was on the (American) Red Cross board, about three years ago, we identified some of them. But we did not have any services for it. We do have a plan,' he said, referring to the county and to the Red Cross, 'and some equipment and some shelters. But the areas between the bridges could be cut off [boldface added]. It would be good to have blankets and things' in small communities likely to be isolated by collapsed bridges, he said Wednesday."
I have seen no mention that the City has considered or will build and maintain an adequate supply depot of emergency supplies, water, and shelter for the Event Center's capacity of 4,000 people, in case of a major earthquake or tsunami and the failure of the Yaquina Bay Bridge.
The Port is aware of earthquake, tsunami, and bridge failure hazards at the Newport Bayfront/South Beach:
1) An excerpt from a 29 June 2001 article "Port's Tsunami Readiness Questioned" in the News-Times:
"In addition to being vulnerable to any tsunami that could come up the river channel, [Port of Newport Commissioner Mark] Fisher said, the structure [i.e., the Port office] sits on an area made entirely of sand. In a quake, the building site would 'quiver like jelly' and shake down the port office, Fisher said, adding that in such events, much of the damage comes from fires, and the port building is made of wood. 'Are we ready for a tsunami or quake?' he asked [boldface added]. 'I take home a disk with the documents we process each day,' replied Chief Financial Officer Stan Modzelewski, referring to operations from the north side of the bay. Patti Britton, the South Beach Marina office manager, does the same for the South Beach side of the port operations. 'Our leases are on disks and the paper copies are in the fire safe,' general manager Don Mann said. But he acknowledged that in a fire or flood, 'we could lose critical stuff.'"
2) An excerpt from a 6 June 2001 article "Elements Identified for Quake, Tsunami Response in Newport" in the News-Times:
"Port of Newport General Manager Don Mann said he hopes to relocate the port office away from its Bayfront site. Other public facilities, from schools to medical offices, should be relocated, if possible, from inundation zones, the group said."
3) In a conversation with Don Mann during my 7 October 2004 visit to the Port of Newport office, I discussed my earthquake and tsunami concerns about the proposed Event Center at the Port's South Beach Marina. Don noted that all of South Beach was that way. I mentioned that the Yaquina Bay Bridge is predicted by ODOT to fail in a "moderate" earthquake, and if it does, it would cut off visitors to the Event Center from overland help from Newport and that boats in the bay may be damaged by a tsunami. Don added that he was at a meeting where one of the possibilities if the Bridge fails is that it would collapse and block boats from coming in.
Moving the Port's bayfront office to safety or the potential loss of the Port's lease documents in a tsunami or earthquake is important. But how about the potential loss of life from locating the Event Center, hotel, motel, and restaurant in a tsunami and earthquake hazard area on the Port's South Beach property?
The timing of a major earthquake is uncertain, since DOGAMI Open File Report 95-67 (see DOGAMI's http://sarvis.dogami.state.or.us/earthquakes/Coastal/Tsumaps.HTM) notes that the estimated chance of a great (Magnitude 8-9) earthquake in the offshore Cascadia subduction zone in the next 50 years "is between 10 and 20 percent, assuming that the recurrence is on the order of 400 ± 200 years and that the last one occurred about 300 years ago." The probability of a great tsunami that strikes the Oregon coast is not included in that estimate. While that probability seems low, recall that U. S. Geological Survey scientists in 1975 predicted that the eruption of Mt. St. Helens "is likely within the next hundred years" (Crandell et al. 1975. Science 187:438-441), and it erupted with loss of life 5 years later.
I do not know if the City is addressing earthquake, tsunami, and bridge failure issues about their Event Center on your property. I wrote the City Manager, Mayor, and Councilors a letter on Sept. 29 about these concerns, but I have received no response [through Oct. 16].
Another Event Center issue is traffic congestion as discussed during the Port meeting and reported in the Sept. 24 article about the Port. During that meeting it was suggested that there be a Master Plan to work out traffic flow problems that already sometimes exist during special events. The City favors a Master Plan at some future date if it can be funded--according to an excerpt from p. A5 of 6 October 2004 article Newport News-Times article "Master Plan Favored for South Beach by Newport City Manager":
"Newport City Manager Sam Sasaki favors the preparation of a Master Plan for the South Beach area of Newport, Port of Newport manager Don Mann reported to his board of commissioners recently. The port board had supported the idea of such a plan in a recent discussion about possible impacts on port property and businesses in South Beach from the city's planned Events Center. 'I spoke with Sam Sasaki regarding a partnership with the city on a master plan for our South Beach marina property,' Mann wrote in his report to the port board. 'Sam agreed this should be done and said he would seek funding to match any grant funds we can secure. He stressed, as we did,' Mann wrote, 'the importance of a South Beach master plan. We will start by developing a work scope.' Sasaki was not available for comment on the concept." [boldface added]
It looks like the City is much more serious about getting the Event Center than a Master Plan. The City's future "Master" Plan for South Beach, if it is ever done, may be more accurately termed a "Justification Plan" for what already has been done without any planning. A Master Plan should also address the known earthquake and tsunami hazards.
The Intergovernmental Agreement between the City and Port of Newport has not yet been finalized. An excerpt from the p. A3, October 8 News-Times article "Details of Event Center Funding Discussed":
"[Newport City Manager] Sasaki also told the council this week that details of the long-term lease between the city and the port for use of the event center property is being worked out. The financial terms of this lease have not yet been set, and Sasaki was asked if that could cause problems related to the cost of the project. He said he doesn't anticipate that to be a factor because it will be a 'nominal fee,' such as $1 per year. The city has agreed to make those infrastructure improvements, he said, in lieu of dollar compensation."
Is the Port being compensated adequately for risking people's lives and potential liability lawsuits for negligence by allowing an Event Center in a known earthquake and tsunami hazard area on the Port's property?
Is it wise to build the Event Center in a known earthquake and tsunami hazard area? It appears that the City and the Port are gambling people's lives that a major earthquake or tsunami will not occur if the Event Center is built at the South Beach Marina.
In my opinion, public safety comes first.
Thank you for your time and consideration.
Respectfully yours,
Range (Richard) Bayer; rbayer@orednet.org; PO Box 1467; Newport, OR 97365
Event Center Safety: http://www.orednet.org/~rbayer/lincoln/ec-newport.htm [all lower case letters]
P.S. This letter and my September 29 letter to the City are posted at my web site: http://www.orednet.org/~rbayer/lincoln/ec-newport.htm [all lower case letters].
P.P.S. I have made copies for each of you because some pages in the Appendices include color imagery that would not show up if photocopied in black and white as is usually done.
APPENDIX A. Color copies of portions of Newport maps in the 1999 Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) Interpretive Map Series No. 10 (IMS-10) for "Relative Amplification Hazard," "Relative Liquefaction Hazard," and "Relative Earthquake Hazard." They show that the South Beach area is in the HIGHEST risk categories. The whole maps and explanatory text for the maps are at c; each whole map is large (1.8-2.0 Mb).
This 1999 report is described in a DOGAMI press release "Earthquake Hazard Maps Released for Coastal Oregon at http://sarvis.dogami.state.or.us/news&events/archives/18-cstlmaps.htm
I drew in the location of the Event Center, based on a map at the Port of Newport's office on
7 October 2004.
Link to Amplification Hazard only for South Beach map portion (ec-newport_amp-d.jpg, 535K)
Link to Liquefaction Hazard only for South Beach map portion (ec-newport_liq-c.jpg, 585K)
Link to Relative Earthquake Hazard only for South Beach map portion (ec-newport_relhaz-c.jpg, 613K)
APPENDIX B. Color copy of DOGAMI's Newport-South tsunami evacuation map showing that the South Beach area where the Event Center is proposed would need to be evacuated. The second page of the brochure shows the Newport-North evacuation map. See the "Newport" map at http://sarvis.dogami.state.or.us/earthquakes/Coastal/Tsubrochures.htm
I drew in the location of the Event Center (which is at the base of the map's Evacuation Route arrow) and Yaquina Bay Bridge.
Link to Evacuation Map only for South Beach map portion (ec-ap-b.jpg, 213K)
APPENDIX C. Color copy of upper portion of DOGAMI's Open File Report O-95-29 (Newport-South) that is available at http://sarvis.dogami.state.or.us/earthquakes/Coastal/Tsumapsbycity.HTM that shows that the Port's South Beach area is below the Tsunami Inundation Boundary. The whole map is large (3.6Mb).
The DOGAMI press release describing these maps is at http://sarvis.dogami.state.or.us/news&events/archives/9611-rel.htm. It indicates that:
"Each map has a line that shows how far inland and uphill a tsunami caused by a magnitude 8.8 undersea earthquake is expected to go. The new maps were developed to implement Oregon Revised Statutes 455.446 and 455.447, a law passed by the 1995 Legislature to restrict construction of certain types of essential facilities and special occupancy structures within the tsunami inundation zone."
I drew in the location of the Event Center, based on a map at the Port of Newport's office on 7 October 2004.
APPENDIX D. Excerpts from "Designing for Tsunamis: Seven Principles for Planning and Designing for Tsunami Hazards." March 2001. A multi-state mitigation project of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Science Foundation (NSF), State of Alaska, State of California, State of Hawaii, State of Oregon, State of Washington. This is at
http://www.prh.noaa.gov/itic/library/pubs/online_docs/Designing_for_Tsunamis.pdf and "[Tsunami] Preparedness" (http://www.prh.noaa.gov/itic/library/pubs/preparedness/preparedness.html) by International Tsunami Information Center, National Weather Service, NOAA.
I have added boldface to highlight some statements.
Excerpt from p. 2 of "Introduction":
"These guidelines are intended for use by local elected, appointed, and administrative officials involved in planning, zoning, building regulation, community redevelopment, and related land use and development functions in coastal communities. The guidelines should also be helpful to state officials having similar responsibilities."
Excerpt from p. 15 of "Principle 2: Avoid Development in Tsunami Run-up Areas to Minimize Future Tsunami Losses":
"Tsunami risk can be mitigated most effectively by avoiding or minimizing the exposure of people and property through land use planning. Development should be prevented in high-hazard areas wherever possible. Where development cannot be prevented, land use intensity, building value, and occupancy should be kept to a minimum. Where these strategies are not available and development will occur in possible tsunami inundation areas, planners and designers must look to mitigation through site planning techniques as discussed under Principle 3 or building construction techniques as discussed under Principle 4."
Excerpt from p. 30 of Principle 4: "Design and Construct New Buildings to Minimize Tsunami Damage":
"Most local building codes used in the Pacific states are based on the Uniform Building Code (UBC) prepared by the International Conference of Building Officials (ICBO). In California, Oregon, and Washington, the state governments mandate code adoption and enforcement at the local level. ...
"The UBC includes design requirements and standards for fire, wind, floods, and earthquakes, but it does not contain requirements for tsunami-resistant design. While a few communities have adopted tsunami-resistant building design standards, the vast majority of coastal communities have not. The City and County of Honolulu has adopted special requirements for floods and tsunamis as part of its Revised Ordinances. With appropriate modifications to reflect local conditions, these could serve as a general model for other states and municipalities. Guidance for architects and engineers in the design for tsunami forces is included in FEMA's Coastal Construction Manual, also known as FEMA 55. The manual deals with tsunamis in a manner similar to the Honolulu ordinance but uses more current information."
Excerpt from p. 31 of Principle 4: "Design and Construct New Buildings to Minimize Tsunami Damage":
"3) Apply Locally Valid Tsunami Hazard Information
"Where a tsunami hazard study has been prepared to inform local design decisions, the information can be used to decide whether to permit construction at a given site. If construction is to be permitted, the building design must address tsunami-related forces, including water pressure, buoyancy, currents and waves, debris impact, scour, and fire. The analyses will vary depending on location, building size, and type of construction, such as reinforced concrete, wood, light metal, and others."
Excerpt from p. 32-34 of Principle 4: "Design and Construct New Buildings to Minimize Tsunami Damage":
"There are four performance levels that can be considered for buildings: minimum, safety, reoccupancy, and operational levels."Buildings located, designed, and constructed to the minimum level should withstand water forces without being moved off their foundations or sites, but they could still be damaged by debris, flooding, ground failures, or other effects.
"Buildings constructed to perform at a safety level should withstand water forces, debris and wave-break impacts, earthquake shaking, ground failure, and fire without significant structural damage. People in taller buildings would be able to evacuate vertically above the level of wave action resulting from a locally generated tsunami.
"Buildings constructed to a reoccupancy level should meet the safety level of performance, but additional precautions should be taken so they can be reoccupied within a few days to weeks after cleanup, minor repairs, and the restoration of utilities. This level requires the careful choice of the building location and the use of flood-resistant materials.
"Finally, the most demanding requirements are used to design buildings to meet the operational level of performance. These buildings should be capable of resisting all expected forces and hazards. They must also have backup emergency systems and utilities so they can be used immediately following a tsunami."
